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Episode 1086: A Podcast With Precedent
Date July 19, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about why so many moves are being made in advance of the trade deadline, the Yankees-White Sox trade, the J.D. Martinez deal, and Yoan Moncada’s promotion, then follow up on previous topics including All-Star Game revisions, Matt Holliday’s odd slide, the Salina Stockade, strange batting stances, and unusual fields before answering listener emails about pitcher similarity, the underrated well-roundedness of Anthony Rendon, teams in difficult buying/selling spots, the most outs made in a single game, player emotions, an upcoming live podcast, and more. Topics * Matt Holiday interference play * Optimal pitching usage * Anthony Rendon's well roundedness * Jose Quintana * Alot of follow up on different batting stances Intro * The Bees, "The Start" Outro * The Raspberries, "Come Around and See Me" Banter * Why are there so many early trades? * The Orioles dealing. Email Questions * Matt: Your discussion of Matt Holiday's non-interference play on Saturday night suggested that it was an unprecedented play, which is of course a challenge to anyone steeped in baseball history. Anyway, it reminded me and my friends of a fairly famous play from Game 7 of the 1960 World Series that tends to get overshadowed by the even more famous events of that game -- namely Mickey Mantle's dive back to first base in the top of the ninth inning. To set the stage, the Pirates led a see-saw battle by 9-8, and the Yankees had Gil McDougald on third base and Mantle on first in the top of the ninth with one out. Yogi Berra pulled a hard grounder on the first base line, and Rocky Nelson, the Pirates' first baseman fielded the ball and stepped on first base. Mantle, who had not moved much from where he had taken his lead, had no chance of making it to second base, and instead dove back into first, evading Nelson's tag. Mantle was entitled to the base since the force was off. And while this was happening, McDougald scored the tying run without a play. It was all for naught, from the Yankee perspective, because Bill Mazeroski homered in the bottom of the ninth. From Mazeroski's perspective, it was just as well that Nelson didn't tag Mantle or throw home to catch McDougald. Here is a link with some pictures of the play and some relatively recent analysis, all occasioned by the discovery, fifty years after the event, of preserved video of the game. So perhaps Matt Holiday thought back to his famous predecessor in making the split second decision to try to go back to first, not realizing that the situation was different in that (in the 2017 game) first base had not been tagged. * Aaron: After listening to Glenn Healey’s discussion of his research in Episode 1082, I got to thinking about how this research could impact the optimal pitching rotation construction or deployment of the bullpen. I’m not sure if you have any of the research, but I have a few interesting (I think) thoughts:Could we look at OPS+ of a team when they face two similar pitchers on consecutive days compared to the mean? Suppose in a few years, Matt Harvey and Shelby Miller ended up on the same team (and somehow were still looking the same as each other), would you want to keep them as far from each other in the rotation because of similarities? Just like you try not to stack your dominate lefties in the rotation for consecutive starts? · Or look at the effectiveness of a reliever when coming in after a similar/dissimilar pitcher? Does avoiding the 3rd-time-through-lineup for a mediocre pitcher outweigh bringing in a fresh pitcher that looks exactly the same? Getting even more exotic - look at framing statistics or error percentage of the umpires when a wildly different pitcher comes in? * David: Two years ago you wrote a fun piece about how Anthony Rendon was above average in practically every category, and could have been an MVP candidate if not for his horrible start. This year, he’s doing it again, minus the bad start. If you filter down the FanGraphs MLB leaderboard to show only players who are above MLB average in BB rate, K rate, ISO, and wRC+, and above zero in BsR, Off, and Def, you get 3 guys: Rendon (4.9 WAR, #1 in the NL) Mookie Betts (4.4) Brett Gardner (2.2) If you additionally require an above-average BABIP, you’re down to just Rendon – who would be the NL WAR MVP if the season ended today, edging out Jose Altuve and Max Scherzer by 0.2 WAR. Would he be the most balanced MVP of all time? Has there ever been an MVP who was above-average at everything? * Mike: Question for you and Jeff for the email bag; listening to the most recent episode regarding the Quintana trade and their bounty of useful trade pieces, that got me thinking about teams that have been about .500 ish and can't win their division or clinch a playoff spot. Have there been teams that have had similar success in the past? Any current teams that should consider replicating what the Sox are trying? One team that comes to mind is the Mariners. * Daniel: After Quintana’s great start for the cubs the other day, I got to thinking about how players feel. I am wondering if Quintana was excited to stay in the same city and play for an exciting young contending ball club, and I wonder if that made him feel more confident and dialed in and led to his excellent performance. Do we see performance bonuses from players who get traded to contending teams? or penalty for going to a losing ball club? Furthermore, the real question I have is over how baseball players feel. I know that when I’m at work and I’m sad, or mad, or frustrated, my work suffers. The same happens when my future is uncertain and I’m left wondering if I have a position, or if I’ll have to move. Granted, I still get my work done, but it certainly sees a loss of production during tough times when I’m stressed. Could we make the same assumption about baseball players? Do teams do any sort of clinical psychology to keep the players happy, or at least not sad, like the Pirates? Any merit to keeping your employees happy and seeing an increase in production? Stat Blast * Hitters who made the most outstanding in a game. * In 1984 Julio Cruz and Cecil Cooper each made 10 outs in the same game. * In 1972 Danny Thompson made 10 outs in a game, and committed an error in the feild. * In 1945 George Kell batted ten times went 0 for 10 and made 11 outs. * In 1920 in the longest games in history went 26 innings and ended in a 1 - 1 tie, both pitchers threw 26 innings. In that game Charlie pick went 0 for 11 and made 2 errors. Notes * Jeff says its it's more optimal to make a trade earlier. * Jeff likes that the Yankees jumped out in front of the Red Sox and how they have rebuilt the bullpen * The Orioles have gotten the play to deal their big players too. * Latroy Hawkins - “Tommy Kahnle was one on the worst teammates I've had in my life” * Carlos Correa got injured. * The White Sox promoted Yoan Moncada. * Tommy Kahnle had not been linked on MLB trade rumors since 2016. * Can the MLB test things out in the all star game, ala the NHL all star game? * Ben doesn't think a “small town” all star game would work. * Jeff wants a pop up all star skills competition, like stand up comedians. * Matt Sergey pitches right and left handed. * “I don't think there is anything more dangerous than a limestone cliff, and nothing more terrifying than cacti in the outfield" - Jeff * “Maybe try a little landscaping” - Ben * Reimel Tapia changes stance for the count. * Jeff wonder why Reimel Tapia doesn't just use his 2 strike stance all the time. * “My front right right foot is turned so far inward that my heel is almost facing the pitching mound. I do that because my body instinctively wants to pull the ball instead of squaring up. So I turn my foot to prevent my hip from opening up.” - Denard Span * Pitchers were better coming after an R.A. Dickey start. * Jeff's had a hunch that the Orioles have benefited from all the different arm angles in their bullpen. * Ben says balance is cool, but it doesn't make you more valuable than someone who excels at one or 2 things. * Ben thinks Anthony Rendon may be the best all around player on the Nationals. * The 2014 were barely about .500 before trying to go for it. * “Well, yeah teams want to keep their players happy” - Jeff * Ben mentions pitch talks lineup. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1086: A Podcast With Precedent * 50 Years Later, a Slide Still Confounds by Richard Sandomir Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes